Nokia’s AI Rally Faces Its Next Test: A 6G Showcase in Málaga and the Weight of Expectations

Nokia’s stock closed at €12.76 on Friday, down 2.67% — a modest retreat after a staggering 129% year-to-date surge that has turned the Finnish telecom equipment maker into one of the hottest AI infrastructure plays on the market. The question now is whether the technology narrative can withstand the scrutiny of a week packed with both product demonstrations and macro data.

From June 2 to 5, Nokia takes center stage as a Gold Patron Sponsor at the EuCNC & 6G Summit in Málaga, where it will showcase next-generation intelligent network applications — remote driving with ultra-low latency, immersive telepresence, and a demo of L4S (Low Latency, Low Loss, Scalable Throughput) that visualizes early congestion signals. For a company whose valuation has been reshaped by its pivot toward AI-native networks, this is no mere trade-show appearance. The market is looking for concrete evidence that the 6G pipeline has commercial heft.

The rally that brought Nokia from a 52-week low of €3.49 in August 2025 to within 10% of its €14.14 high has been built on hard numbers. In the first quarter of 2026, net profit jumped 54% to €281 million, comfortably beating analyst expectations, while revenue rose 4% to €4.5 billion. Free cash flow came in at €629 million, and net liquidity stood at €3.8 billion. The growth engine is unmistakable: revenue from AI and cloud customers surged 49%, and Nokia secured €1 billion in new cloud orders, predominantly for optical network gear serving hyperscale AI data centers. The Optical Networks segment alone expanded 20%.

Management responded by raising its full-year guidance, now targeting comparable operating profit between €2.0 billion and €2.5 billion. The Network Infrastructure division is forecast to grow 12% to 14%, with optical and IP networks together climbing 18% to 20%. That bullish outlook has drawn upgrades from SEB Bank to “Buy,” and price-target increases from JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, both of which now frame Nokia as a legitimate AI infrastructure contender.

Should investors sell immediately? Or is it worth buying Nokia?

Yet beneath the celebratory headlines, Nokia’s story is not without its drags. Fixed Networks shrank 13% in the first quarter, a reminder that the legacy telecom business still weighs on the overall mix. The company’s new optical networking products won’t enter sampling until mid-2027, with series production slated for the second half of that year. Until then, the stock’s trajectory will hinge on order intake and visible demand signals — the kind of proof points that Málaga is meant to provide.

The macroeconomic calendar adds another layer of tension. On June 1, the US ISM manufacturing index is due; on June 3, the services index; and on June 5, the May jobs report. Strong data could lift risk appetite and support high-growth infrastructure names, while any wobble might accelerate profit-taking after a 129% run. Nokia’s annualized 30-day volatility of over 74% already signals a market in the midst of repricing, and that process is rarely smooth.

For now, the €12.76 level serves as a psychological anchor. A week of convincing demos and supportive macro prints could keep the AI- and 6G-driven narrative intact. A further slide, however, would raise uncomfortable questions about whether the rally has run ahead of tangible delivery — and whether even the most compelling technology story can defy the pull of gravity when expectations are this high.